Blar i Bergen Open Research Archive på forfatter "Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian"
-
Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections
Cheung, Ho-Nam; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koenigk, Torben; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Xu, Zhiqing; Gao, Yongqi; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Qiao, Shaobo; Zhou, Wen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We investigate the uncertainty (i.e., inter-model spread) in future projections of the boreal winter climate, based on the forced response of ten models from the CMIP5 following the RCP8.5 scenario. The uncertainty in the ... -
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Matthes, Katja; Boljka, Lina; Zanchettin, Davide; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Lubis, Sandro W. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends ... -
Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux
Koseki, Shunya; Tjiputra, Jerry; Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Crespo, Lander Rodriguez; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Atlantic Niño is a major tropical interannual climate variability mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) that occurs during boreal summer and shares many similarities with the tropical Pacific El Niño. Although the ... -
ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability
King, Martin Peter; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Li, Camille (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)The validity of the long-held understanding or assumption that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a remote influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the January–February–March (JFM) months has been questioned ... -
Framework for an Ocean-Connected Supermodel of the Earth System
Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Wang, Shuo; Devilliers, Marion; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Koseki, Shunya; Shen, Mao-Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)A supermodel connects different models interactively so that their systematic errors compensate and achieve a model with superior performance. It differs from the standard non-interactive multi-model ensembles (NI), which ... -
Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific
Boljka, Lina; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)A variety of statistical tools have been used in climate science to gain a better understanding of the climate system's variability on various temporal and spatial scales. However, these tools are mostly linear, stationary, ... -
Impact of the Agulhas Current on Southern Africa Precipitation: A Modeling Study
Nkwinkwa, Arielle Stela Imbol; Rouault, Mathieu; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Koseki, Shunya (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)The Agulhas Current (AC) creates a sharp temperature gradient with the surrounding ocean, leading to a large turbulent flux of moisture from ocean to atmosphere. We use two simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting ... -
Mitigating climate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet
Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Schiemann, Reinhard; Baker, Alexander J.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Haarsma, Rein; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Roberts, Chris; Novak, Lenka; Gualdi, Silvio (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 1° ... -
Multidecadal variability of ENSO in a recharge oscillator framework
Rodriguez Crespo, Lander; Rodríguez-Fonseca, María Belén; Polo, Irene; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Dommenget, Dietmar (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We use a conceptual recharge oscillator model to identify changes in El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) statistics and dynamics during the observational record. The variability of ENSO has increased during the ... -
NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP
Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kimmritz, Madlen; Fransner, Filippa; Samuelsen, Annette; Langehaug, Helene R.; Svendsen, Lea; Chiu, Ping-Gin; Passos, Leilane G.; Bentsen, Mats; Guo, Chuncheng; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Tjiputra, Jerry; Kirkevåg, Alf; Oliviè, Dirk Jan Leo; Seland, Øyvind; Vågane, Julie Solsvik; Fan, Yuanchao; Eldevik, Tor (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021)The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) ... -
On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: role of the air-sea heat flux
Rivas Camargo, David Alberto; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is responsible for important physical and biogeochemical anomalies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The event of 1997-98 has been one of the most intense in the last ... -
Pacific oceanic front amplifies the impact of Atlantic oceanic front on North Atlantic blocking
Cheung, Ho Nam; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Ogawa, Fumiaki; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Nakamura, Hisashi; Zhou, Wen (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Atmospheric blocking is a crucial driver of extreme weather events, but its climatological frequency is largely underestimated in state-of-the-art climate models, especially around the North Atlantic. While air-sea interaction ... -
Pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation linked to ocean circulation
Nnamchi, Hyacinth C.; Farneti, Riccardo; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kucharski, Fred; Latif, Mojib; Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Atlantic climate displays an oscillatory mode at a period of 10–15 years described as pan-Atlantic decadal oscillation. Prevailing theories on the mode are based on thermodynamic air-sea interactions and the role of ocean ... -
Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance
Fransner, Sara Filippa Krusmynta; Olsen, Are; Årthun, Marius; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Tjiputra, Jerry; Samuelsen, Annette; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)The Barents Sea is a highly biologically productive Arctic shelf sea with several commercially important fish stocks. Interannual-to-decadal predictions of its ecosystem would therefore be valuable for marine resource ... -
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway
Langehaug, Helene R.; Ortega, Pablo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Matei, Daniela; Maroon, Elizabeth A.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Mignot, Juliette; Wang, Yiguo; Swingedouw, Didier; Bethke, Ingo; Yang, Shuting; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Bellucci, Alessio; Ruggieri, Paolo; Nicoli, D.; Årthun, Marius (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We ... -
Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions
O'Kane, Terence J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Brookshaw, Anca; Buontempo, Carlo; Carlin, David; Connell, Richenda K.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Förster, Kristian; Graça, Antonio; Hobday, Alistair J.; Kitsios, Vassili; van der Laan, Larissa; Lockwood, Julia; Merryfield, William J.; Paxian, Andreas; Payne, Mark R.; Reader, M. Catherine; Saville, Geoffrey R.; Smith, Doug; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Caltabiano, Nico; Carman, Jessie; Hawkins, Ed; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Pohlmann, Holger; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Sparrow, Michael; Wu, Bo (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections ... -
The role of air–sea coupling on November–April intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific
Pariyar, Sunil Kumar; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Tsuang, Ben-Jei (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)We investigate the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific using the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled with the ... -
Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts
Payne, Mark R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Matei, Daniela; Miesner, Anna K.; Yang, Shuting; Yeager, Stephen G. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2022)Many fish and marine organisms are responding to our planet’s changing climate by shifting their distribution. Such shifts can drive international conflicts and are highly problematic for the communities and businesses ... -
Southern Ocean Control of 2°C Global Warming in Climate Models
Shin, S.J.; Yeh, S.W.; An, S.I.; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Xie, S.P.; Park, J.H. (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)Global warming will soon reach the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5°C/2°C temperature increase above pre-industrial levels. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the time to reach these targets varies widely among climate ... -
Supermodeling Improving Predictions with an Ensemble of Interacting Models
Schevenhoven, Francine Janneke; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Gupta, Alok Kumar; Koseki, Shunya; Shen, Mao-Lin (Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2023)The modeling of weather and climate has been a success story. The skill of forecasts continues to improve and model biases continue to decrease. Combining the output of multiple models has further improved forecast skill ...